The
Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems store over 2,000 gross tons (Gt; 1 Gt = 1,015 g)
of soil organic carbon (SOC), which is about four times more carbon than is
stored in the atmosphere. Annually, soils release over 60 Gt carbon to the
atmosphere, which is about 10 times that amount released by fossil fuel
combustion. Warming can increase the rate at which fresh organic matter (e.g.,
recently senesced leaves, or fruits) decomposes, with the highest rates found
where it is wet and warm. Less is known about how more thoroughly decomposed
material (e.g., SOC) responds to changes in temperature, but it is assumed that
global warming will increase SOC decomposition rates, with the sensitivity of
SOC decomposition to warming determining the extent to which SOC storage will
be altered by climate change. Because the sensitivity of SOC decomposition to
temperature remains poorly quantified, it cannot be accurately predicted
whether global soils will change from a net sink to a net source of CO2 as the planet warms.
SOC
serves many important ecosystem roles. Because the supply of organic carbon
exerts a dominant control on the activity of soil heterotrophic organisms—from
bacteria to insects—SOC is critical to regulating the structure and functioning
of soil communities. Further, during SOC decomposition, large quantities of
nutrients are released from organic to mineral forms, and so SOC provides a
critical source of nutrients to growing vegetation.
The
amount of SOC can also affect the water-holding capacity of a soil, as well as
water movement through soils. Despite these important roles, the tremendous
complexity of SOC in natural and agricultural systems presents important
challenges to quantifying SOC formation and decomposition, including the
sensitivity of these processes to climate change. This complexity results from
the fact that very large quantities of organic matter are cycled through soils
annually, but only a very small fraction remains in soils, typically in a
highly transformed state that can persist in soils for millennia as a result of
chemical recalcitrance or protection by clay minerals.
Given
the important effect that climate may have on SOC decomposition, it is critical
that tools be developed to accurately predict how SOC formation, decomposition,
and storage respond to climate change. Of particular importance is quantifying
interactions among driving variables, as these interactions will influence
responses in difficult-to-predict ways. For example, warming in cold and wet climates
may result in the loss of SOC, as warming can dry out often anaerobic soils in
which oxygen supply limits decomposition rates. In contrast, warming in
temperate or tropical climates may have little effect on or even slow SOC
decomposition rates, especially if moisture is limiting for the soil microbes
responsible for decomposing SOC. Reducing uncertainty is important for
accurately predicting how the terrestrial carbon cycle, and hence the climate,
will respond to global warming.
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