Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference

Dangerous anthropogenic interference refers to scientific estimates of the level of human impacts on the environment that will result in changes, such as global warming, to the point of devastating consequences for the planet and its inhabitants. Scientists and governments have used a variety of models, tools, and data to determine levels of dangerous anthropogenic interference.

Although there is no clear definition of dangerous anthropogenic interference, international studies such as those conducted by the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mark the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference between a 1.8 to 5.4 degree F (1 to 3 degree C) rise in the global mean temperature above pre-industrial levels. Although historical human actions have been implicated in a degree of impact on global warming, scientists, governments, and industries have implemented various strategies to reduce or avoid additional dangerous anthropogenic interference for the future.

Scientists began seeking methods of determing the risks of climate change and global warming and their associated impacts as these issues became a growing concern in the late 20th century. Global warming involves increases in the Earth’s global mean temperature. One of the leading sources of dangerous anthropogenic interference and global warming is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Sources of GHG emissions include the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, increased use of agricultural fertilizers, growing world populations and subsequent energy and food demands, and land use changes and deforestation.

No Clear Definition or Agreement

There is a lack of a clear definition of dangerous anthropogenic interference among scientists, governments, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), as well as a lack of agreement on how it should be prevented. Factors taken into consideration when defining dangerous anthropogenic interference include economic, political, ethical, and scientific concerns. Political and ethical considerations include identifying who will be most impacted by climate change and reduction efforts, as risks and benefits will not be equally shared across the globe. Economic considerations include cost-benefit analyses of methods to prevent or reduce dangerous anthropogenic interference. Scientific factors include historical and current emissions data, forecast models, and the problem of uncertainties in data collection and assessment.

Scientists estimate that temperatures in the

northern polar region are increasing at a faster

rate than the global mean temperature. The use

of aerosols and resulting air pollution presents a

problem in the determination of climate change

and dangerous anthropogenic interference levels.

Aerosol emissions mask GHG warming by raising

levels of incoming solar radiation that is reflected

back to space, known as the albedo. Scientists refer

to this phenomenon as radiative or GHG forcing,

or the aerosol cooling effect. As international

regulations and national air pollution legislation

phase out aerosol use, scientists will gradually

understand the levels of the cooling effect as GHG

levels rise. Greenhouse gases, however, remain in

the atmosphere for much longer periods of time

than aerosols. Scientists also estimate the degree of

global warming that will occur because of historical

emissions that cannot be avoided.

The levels of climate change risk and dangerous

anthropogenic interference have been increased

in the 21st century, as previously hypothetical

impacts of such changes have been scientifically

observed. Many scientists and international agreements

mark the level of dangerous anthropogenic

interference at between a 1.8 to 5.4 degree F (1 to

3 degree C) rise in the global mean temperature

above pre-industrial levels, with some estimates

as high as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C). The IPCC

has estimated this committed warming level to be

4.3 degrees F (2.4 degrees C), with approximately

0.6 degree C already realized. These increased

estimates have also raised estimates of how much

time it will take before various levels of dangerous

anthropogenic interference occur.